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The Future World and Artificial Intelligence Technologies

Яковенко
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In my view, it is insufficient to simply liken the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) to groundbreaking technologies of the past (from the printing press to nuclear energy), which significantly impacted global development and international relations. Due to the very nature of this technology, future qualitative progress in AI development will signify the potential for transformative breakthroughs across all fields of scientific knowledge and technology, unparalleled in human history and fraught with serious geopolitical consequences.

We are witnessing a transition from conventional forms of narrow AI to more complex systems. Today, multimodal and multitask intelligent systems are advancing rapidly, representing a significant step toward the creation of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Experts predict that AGI, in terms of its capabilities, will match and surpass human cognitive abilities across all domains. They believe the impact of AGI will be comparable to the development of nuclear weapons.

Some experts view the emergence of large language models (LLMs) as a precursor to AGI. The global competition in developing language models is increasingly turning into a technological "arms race." LLM developers are vying within this newly unveiled niche for performance, popularity, audience, and funding. The winner of this race could radically shift the global economic balance of power in their favor.

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The creation of AGI that remains within the bounds of machine intelligence and under human control, in synchronized cooperation with corresponding intelligent robots, will objectively lay the groundwork for a radical transformation of the modern world, which can be characterized as cyber-physical. A breakthrough in developing strong AI based on fundamentally new principles is becoming a key condition for shaping a multipolar geopolitical reality. This reality entails the protection and export of digital sovereignty, as well as a rethinking of humanity's place in this new world—counteracting the approaches rooted in transhumanist ideologies.

Transnational IT companies are gaining power and the authority to make state-level decisions, such as granting or restricting access to mobile internet or cloud services. The influence of large tech companies on geopolitics undermines state sovereignty to some extent, as governments often relinquish control over technologies or delegate it to corporations. It appears that little will change in the relationship between the government and IT businesses, including in the field of AI, even with the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House.

LLM systems bring new, often marginal actors into the forefront, enabling access to operations with political consequences for a wide audience.

Further progress in AI development could and should lead to significant improvements and advancements in all aspects of human life, provided the industry develops in a socially-oriented and balanced manner, given its truly colossal potential. However, due to the acute contradictions of modern times and the presence of influential state and non-state antisocial factors, the quantitative and qualitative progress in AI development could also pave the way for various negative scenarios, including the potential destruction of humanity.

разбитый телефон
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AI technologies can profoundly impact the system of international relations by creating new, imbalanced geopolitical hierarchies. This growing influence may not be tied to specific crises, wars, or limited-time sequences of events but will nonetheless have long-term consequences, blurring the lines between war and peace. There is a discernible trend toward cyber-colonization, which will exacerbate the divide between a small number of states possessing and mastering new technological tools of geopolitical power and the overwhelming majority of countries that are mere consumers of advanced technologies.

Competition in the field of intelligent systems will become a new arena for technological rivalry, where success will depend not only on the quality and quantity of digital hardware and software but also on the volume and quality of big data these systems are trained on. Today, a global race for access to big data is unfolding.

It is foreseeable that these destabilizing trends will manifest with new intensity and speed due to the rapid advancements in AI. The implicit aspect of digital imperialism will be challenging for political leaders to recognize, and it is unlikely to enter the collective consciousness of the population due to its latent nature.

As trust in artificial intelligence grows, it will become increasingly difficult for policymakers to make independent decisions without facing legal repercussions. At the same time, less technologically advanced countries will likely be forced to rely more frequently on less advanced, "outdated" AI algorithms in their policies, as they lack the ability to compete with rivals in the speed of information analysis and decision-making.

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A growing area of potential risk is the malicious use of AI, particularly in the informational and psychological domains, which requires careful assessment and appropriate responses. As President Vladimir Putin emphasized in his speech at the "Journey into the World of Artificial Intelligence" conference on November 24, 2023, "it is essential to leverage Russian solutions in creating reliable, transparent, and human-safe AI systems while also involving specialists in the humanities in the broader effort." The integration of technical and humanities expertise is a critical condition for the systemic, rapid, and safe development of AI today and, even more so, in the near future.

Finally, the creation in China of the open-source AI model DeepSeek, which outperformed and was more cost-effective than the American OpenAI, demonstrated that technological breakthroughs in AI development are possible in various countries and that technological competition knows no boundaries.

Alexander Yakovenko, Head of the Committee on Global Challenges and International Security of the Scientific and Expert Council of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Deputy Director General of MIA "Russia Today.